Can Climate Science Improve Grain Profit?

GRDC - Peter Hayman and Bronya Cooper (SARDI Climate Applications)

Type: Research Paper
Knowledge level: Advanced

Farm Table says:

The authors of this paper note in the conclusion: “Growers and advisers should check for updates as the season unfolds. As Annie Duke points out, whether playing poker or making a business decision, the first step is to say ‘I’m not sure’ but also to make sure you don’t stop there. Saying ‘I’m not sure’ is very different to saying ‘I have no idea’ or ‘I know nothing’”.   Please access the full paper via the link below if this research interests you.

The take home messages from this GRDC funded research are below. Please access the full paper via the link below for methodology, references, acknowledgements and discussion.

Take home messages from the paper include:

  • Understand your decision context – is it more like chess or poker?
  • Incorporate information from climate science into risk management and decision making.
  • Over the past century, neutral climate drivers, like we have in 2018 have delivered a wide range of seasons. It is a mistake to assume neutral drivers result in a decile 5 season.

 

2018 - Australia - GRDC - Peter Hayman and Bronya Cooper (SARDI Climate Applications)
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